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World Bank predicts 3.6-fold surge in transport volumes via TITR investments by 2040

BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 1.
The volume of cargo transported along the Trans-Caspian
International Transport Route (TITR) route will increase 3.6-fold
by 2040 if countries continue to invest in it, a Senior Transport
Economist at the World Bank, Muneeza Alam, said during a World Bank
Group online event titled "Middle Corridor: Next Stage," Trend ’s correspondent
reports.

"In the report on the Middle Corridor, we evaluate several
scenarios. The first scenario we consider is what we call the
'status quo' or 'business-as-usual' scenario. In this scenario, we
factor in all investments made in the TITR up to and including the
end of 2025, that is, all recent investments. We find that cargo
volumes along the corridor will increase 2.7-fold between 2023 and
2040, representing a substantial rise in total volume," she
said.

According to Alam, non-oil cargo volumes show similar growth,
projected to increase 2.4-fold by 2040.

"In our report, we also examine the potential outcomes if
countries continue to invest in the corridor—that is, if they do
not halt investment at 2025 levels but instead proceed with
strategic investments along the route. We refer to this as the TITR
infrastructure development scenario, which is a scenario of
continued strategic investment.

We find that the corridor’s potential is even greater under this
scenario, with significantly higher volume growth. If countries
continue to invest in the TITR, transport volumes along the route
are projected to increase 3.6-fold by 2040, compared to a 2.4-fold
increase otherwise. This represents a substantial rise," she
said.

The World Bank representative noted that non-oil volumes are
projected to see even greater, 4.5-fold growth.

"Comparing the TITR development scenario with the
'business-as-usual' scenario reveals the cost of inaction. The cost
of inaction represents the volumes that would not be realized if
countries stopped investing in the Middle Corridor, and this cost
is quite high. For total transport volumes, this cost amounts to
33%; in other words, 33% of potential volume would be lost if
investment ceased. For non-oil volumes, the cost is even higher -
89%," she said.

Source: https://www.trend.az/world/4230050.html

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