Brazil Stocks Jump 7.7% to Record 206,912 After Vote

Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next

First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.

Brazil stocks closed at a record on Monday, the first session after Flávio Bolsonaro led Sunday’s presidential first round. The Ibovespa, São Paulo’s benchmark index, rose 7.70% to 206,911.89 points, its first close above 200,000.

For US investors the gain was bigger, because the real rallied too. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) rose 12.57% in New York, and the dollar fell 4.12% against the real.

Flávio, a conservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the runoff. Lula leads the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) and seeks a fourth term.

The Ibovespa closed at 206,911.89 points, up 7.70% from Friday’s 192,114.55, InfoMoney reported. During the session it traded above 209,000 points for the first time, according to G1, CNN Brasil and InfoMoney.

It was the largest daily rise since 24 March 2020, when the index gained 9.69% during the pandemic rebound, B3 closing data show. The previous closing record was 198,657.33 points, set in April.

The spot dollar closed down 4.12% at 5.0022 reais per dollar, Terra and Money Times reported. During the day it fell as low as 4.954 reais per dollar.

The central bank’s final PTAX reference rate was 4.9859 reais per dollar, 4.6% below Friday’s 5.2238. It was the first PTAX below five since 14 May, central bank data show.

Measured in dollars, the Ibovespa rose about 12% on the day, from about 36,800 to about 41,400. That is roughly the gain a US investor in the index would see.

The dollar's official PTAX rate fell 4.6% on Monday after the first round, closing below five reais for the first time since 14 May. Source: Banco Central do Brasil.

Friday’s positioning is in Ibovespa Jumps 2.6% to 192,115 on Vote Eve | Brazil Market Report, Oct 2 . Our overnight report, Brazil Runoff Set; Ibovespa Entered Vote at 192,115 , has the last prices before the count.

Brazilian shares listed in the US moved hours before São Paulo opened and held their gains to the 4 p.m. ET close. The Petrobras ADR rose 11.59% to US$24.16.

An ADR, or American depositary receipt, is a US-listed certificate for a foreign share. Itaú Unibanco’s ADR closed 15.42% higher at US$9.92 and Bradesco’s 18.48% higher at US$4.32.

Vale, the iron ore miner, lagged with a 2.98% gain to US$14.17. EWZ, the main US fund for Brazil stocks, closed 12.57% higher at US$42.99.

EWZ gains include the currency move, Valor noted, so they run ahead of the index in reais. A stronger real lifts the dollar value of every Brazilian share at once.

In São Paulo, state-linked names led the large caps in the morning. At 10:30 a.m., Banco do Brasil was up 12.82% and Petrobras preferred shares 6.47%, per Valor.

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Investors read the result as raising the odds of a change of government and tighter public spending from 2027. Polls had expected Lula to finish first, Investing.com noted.

The right also gained in Congress. The Liberal Party (PL), the Bolsonaro family’s conservative party led by Valdemar Costa Neto, won 19 Senate seats on Sunday.

Capital Economics, a London-based research firm, said a Flávio win would bring better prospects of fiscal tightening and reform.

Interest-rate futures fell sharply. The January 2031 contract dropped 97 basis points to 13.02% by 9:20 a.m., hitting B3’s daily limit, Valor reported.

Lower long-term rates ease borrowing costs for the government and for companies. Not every share rose, though.

Exporters such as pulp maker Suzano, planemaker Embraer and motor maker WEG traded lower, InfoMoney reported. A stronger real cuts their revenue once converted from dollars.

History offers a guide and a caution. In 2022, after Jair Bolsonaro beat the polls in the first round, the index jumped 5.54% the next day, B3 data show.

The central bank’s PTAX dollar rate fell 3.8% that day. Lula still won the runoff four weeks later.

For US holders of Brazil stocks through EWZ or ADRs, Monday added to a strong run. The Ibovespa had already gained 4.7% in the week to Friday 2 October.

For travellers, the move works the other way. At Monday’s close the rate was 5.00 reais per dollar, against 5.22 on Friday, so Brazil costs roughly 4% more.

US firms that buy Brazilian goods also pay more in dollars if the real holds. Brazil’s exporters of soybeans, iron ore and oil earn fewer reais per dollar sold.

The bigger unknown for Brazil stocks is the 25 October runoff. Flávio leads by about 2.2 million votes, but a two-point gap leaves room for Lula to recover.

Flávio’s fiscal plans are not yet clear, CNN Brasil noted, even as markets price in tighter spending. Some analysts warned of euphoria without a fiscal basis.

Nor is it known how the central bank will read a stronger real. The Selic, Brazil’s policy rate, stands at 13.75% after a quarter-point cut on 16 September.

More: Brazil news in English , every day from The Rio Times.

On Polymarket’s “Bank of Brazil decision in November?” market, bets put a quarter-point Selic cut at 73% on 5 October at 4:22 p.m. ET. A cut of 50 points or more stood at 13.9%, and no change at 8.5%.

Over the past day, no change lost about 11 points and the larger cut gained about 10. It is a thin market, with about US$42,000 traded.

The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meets on 3 and 4 November, nine days after the runoff. A stronger real lowers import prices, which can leave room to keep cutting.

Prediction markets · who wins the runoff

Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.

Flávio Bolsonaro 83.2% · Lula 16.5% (US$173 million traded)

Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)

As of 5 October, 4:20 pm ET (21:20 Lisbon) , updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Investors read Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead as raising the chance of a change of government and tighter spending. The Ibovespa closed above 200,000 points for the first time on 5 October.

At Monday’s close on 5 October, the rate was 5.00 reais per dollar, down 4.12% on the day. One real was worth about 20 US cents.

It is on Sunday 25 October 2026, between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula. The central bank’s next rate decision follows on 4 November.

Sources: B3, Ibovespa historical statistics ; Banco Central do Brasil, PTAX bulletins ; InfoMoney, Ibovespa close ; Money Times, dollar close ; Valor Econômico, Ibovespa ; Valor Econômico, ADRs ; Valor Econômico, interest-rate futures ; Nasdaq quote pages (PBR, ITUB, BBD, VALE, EWZ closes) ; Exame ; CNN Brasil ; Capital Economics ; Terra (dollar close); Banco Central do Brasil, Copom statement of 16 September 2026; TSE; Polymarket.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind , Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error