First Atlantic Hurricane of 2026 Seen Threatening US Gulf Coast

The US Gulf Coast will likely be hit by the first Atlantic hurricane of the year in coming days by a storm now gathering strength off the Mexican coast. A tropical depression, the first step in a storm’s evolution to hurricane status, formed about 630 miles south of the Mississippi River’s mouth with winds of 35 miles per hour, the US National Hurricane Center said in a 5 p.m. New York time advisory. The system is expected to become Tropical Storm Isaias by Wednesday and progress to hurricane strength by Thursday.“

Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place,” John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist at the center, wrote in his outlook. “The system will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central US Gulf coast Friday into the weekend.” Current track forecasts take the storm to the east of the major offshore oil and natural gas production south of Louisiana and Texas, although there could be some disruptions depending its path and size.

If the forecast holds, winds will peak at 100 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the five-step, Saffir-Simpson scale. It would be the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, a milestone normally reached in the second week of August. This Atlantic season has lagged well behind the usual pace, with eight named storms, none of which became hurricanes. By early October, an average season typically has produced about 11 named storms, including five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Strengthening El Niño conditions have increased wind shear that helped suppress activity across the basin.

Shear occurs when winds change speed or direction at different altitudes, disrupting a storm’s structure. The warm waters of the Gulf will fuel the storm, Cangialosi said. “Based on the environmental conditions and the model guidance, the cyclone will likely peak in strength before reaching the coast,” he said. In addition to high winds, the storm is expected to drop as much as 6 inches of rain across the Gulf states, with some isolated areas getting up to 10 inches, the hurricane center said.