Brazil election: Can Flavio Bolsonaro challenge Lula in a neck-and-neck race? What latest polls show

Brazil's presidential election is entering its final stretch, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro by three percentage points in the latest first-round polling, according to Bloomberg. A potential runoff between the two remains statistically tied, said the report.The latest AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg, conducted among 5,005 people between 23 and 28 September, gives Lula 45% and Bolsonaro 42% in the first round.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.Brazil is scheduled to hold the first round on 4 October, with a runoff on 25 October if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes. Lula, Bolsonaro neck-and-neck in runoffThe AtlasIntel survey gives 47.7% to Bolsonaro and 47.6% to Lula in a simulated runoff, putting the two effectively level within the poll's margin of error.Reuters described the result as a statistical tie, with the 0.1-point difference too small to establish a meaningful lead.

The latest survey marks only a marginal shift from the previous AtlasIntel poll, which had Lula at 47.7% and Bolsonaro at 47.4% in a simulated runoff. That 17–22 September survey covered 5,015 respondents and had the same ±1 percentage-point margin of error. The AtlasIntel series has consistently shown a close contest between the two politicians. The 23–28 September survey is the latest in a series of national polls released by AtlasIntel, following surveys on 23 September, 17 September, 10 September and 31 August.

Each used a sample of roughly 5,000 respondents and carried a ±1 percentage-point margin of error. Bolsonaro emerges as Lula's main challenger Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, entered the presidential race as the leading candidate of Brazil's Bolsonaro-aligned right after his father was barred from running. His campaign has sought to capitalize on dissatisfaction with Lula's government and broader anti-establishment sentiment, according to The Hill.

The election is also unfolding amid scrutiny surrounding the Banco Master scandal, which has drawn attention to political figures and institutions across Brazil, the report added. Bolsonaro denied wrongdoing but has faced an investigation into alleged financial crimes linked to his relationship with banker Daniel Vorcaro. Economy remains central to the campaign Economic conditions remain another key issue in the election.

Brazil's unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in the three months through August, according to the country's statistics agency IBGE. It was the lowest rate for that period since the current methodology began in 2012. At the same time, informal employment remained significant, accounting for about 37.5% of the workforce. Lula's government has also sought to address household financial pressures through measures such as adding expanded benefits under its social welfare programme and plans related to delinquent consumer debt, according to Reuters.

The first-round vote will determine whether either candidate secures enough support to win outright. If neither candidate reaches the required threshold, the contest will move to a second round on 25 October.