Brent crude oil surges past $102 amid Hormuz tensions, US-Iran conflict

Oil prices climbed sharply on Friday (Oct. 2, 2026), with Brent crude reaching $102.30 a barrel and Murban crude rising to $109.40, as of 8:06 am Tokyo time.

WTI crude was at $93.05.

The rally, tracked by OilPrice, came as markets continued to assess disruption risks linked to the US-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz and regional shipping security.

The sharpest move was in Murban, the UAE's flagship crude grade and an important reference for Asian refiners. Its jump above Brent indicates that traders are assigning a higher risk premium to Middle Eastern supply, particularly barrels exposed to Gulf shipping disruptions.

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Here's the latest market snapshot:

•
WTI crude: $93.05, up $0.18, or 0.19%.

•
Brent crude: $102.30, up $4.28, or 4.37%.

•
Murban crude: $109.40, up $7.15, or 6.99%.

Trading Economics’ latest available data showed Brent at $102.46 as of Friday (as of 8.13 am in Tokyo), up 4.51% from the previous day and more than 50% higher than a year earlier.

The difference between the OilPrice.com snapshot and Trading Economics figures reflects timing, contract specifications and data methodology.

Trading Economics says its prices are based on over-the-counter and contract-for-difference instruments and should be treated as market references rather than official exchange-settled benchmarks.

Crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to about 13.2 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data cited by Trading Economics, while JPMorgan estimates that broader Middle East crude exports averaged 17.5 million bpd in September — about 98% of their pre-war level.

However, estimates vary sharply by methodology, and refined-product flows remain far below pre-war levels.

Hormuz remains the central risk

JP Morgan reported that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz had risen to about 13.2 million barrels per day, while wider Middle Eastern exports recovered to around 17.5 million bpd, or about 98% of pre-war levels.

Saudi Arabia’s partial restoration of its East-West pipeline has also provided an alternative route around the strait.tradingeconomics+1

However, traders remain cautious because the recovery depends on continued safe passage and progress in US-Iran negotiations. Any attack on tankers, renewed restrictions or a breakdown in talks could quickly push prices higher.

What it means for consumers

Higher crude prices could increase fuel, transport and shipping costs across Asia if the rally persists.

OilPrice.com also showed petrol (gasoline) at $3.405 and heating oil at $4.651, both slightly higher.

For the UAE, the immediate impact is particularly significant because Murban’s surge raises the value of the country’s exports while also signalling greater risk around regional logistics and energy security.

OPEC+ is expected to keep November production quotas unchanged, leaving geopolitical developments and actual supply flows as the main near-term drivers.

In general, markets remain cautious about the sustainability of the recovery without a lasting agreement to end the Iran war, with both Tehran and Washington claiming control over Hormuz.

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