LNG flows through Hormuz accelerate despite security risks

Despite ongoing security concerns and uncertainty, the number of
liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments passing through the Strait of
Hormuz in September reached its highest monthly level since the
start of the US-Iran war.

Reuters reports, citing S&P Global Energy data, that a total
of 19 LNG cargoes passed through the strategic waterway in
September.

Eric Yep, a lead analyst at S&P, said the figure compares
with 15 shipments recorded in June, when an agreement between the
United States and Iran began taking effect.

"LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated in the
second half of September, and if this trend continues in October,
we could see monthly shipments recover to 25% of pre-war levels,"
Yep noted.

Kpler showed that 21 LNG cargoes passed through the Strait of
Hormuz in September, 15 more than in June.

Despite the conflict, more LNG vessels linked to QatarEnergy
have passed through the strait in recent weeks. Kpler and LSEG
ship-tracking data showed that three more LNG carriers loaded at
Qatar’s Ras Laffan export terminal reappeared near the waterway
this week.

Two of the vessels, Al Kharaij and Al Gharrafa, are linked to
QatarEnergy. The former was last seen in the strait on September
22-23 before reappearing off the western coast.

According to Yep, the key concern is whether LNG transit through
the Strait of Hormuz will continue throughout the winter. He said
this will depend on whether higher exports through the strait could
be perceived as a loss of control by Iran, potentially prompting
further military escalation, as well as whether convoys escorted by
US naval forces will continue.

Before the war, which began on February 28, approximately
one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG supplies passed through the
Strait of Hormuz.

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