Nobel Peace Prize won't go to Trump this year, experts say

Donald Trump has reportedly been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize but experts say it is unlikely he will receive it. ( AP: Jacquelyn Martin )

US President Donald Trump has been "ruled out" of contention for Nobel Peace prize, according to experts and analysts.

The 2026 winner will be announced on October 9.

Last year, Venezuelan politician María Corina Machado was awarded the peace prize for her "struggle to a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy", according to the Nobel Peace Prize Committee.

A few months later, in January 2026, she presented it to Mr Trump, saying it was in recognition of his commitment to her country's freedom.

While the committee for the prize said the award was not transferable, Mr Trump said it was "a wonderful gesture of mutual respect".

The US president has repeatedly stated over the years he would like to receive the award and had been vocal about his wishes ahead of it being awarded last year.

"They will never give me a Nobel Peace Prize. It's too bad. I deserve it, but they will never give it to me," Mr Trump said during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in February 2025.

This year, the deciding body will be mindful of picking someone who can withstand pressure from Mr Trump, according to Haakon Gjerløw, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo.

"I think last year's events around the Nobel Peace Prize, María Corina Machado giving it to Trump afterwards, will affect some of the considerations that they make," he said.

"One worry the committee might have is whether awarding it to someone could put them under pressure from Donald Trump … I think the committee will consider whether the award does more harm than good."

So who is up for the prize and what does it mean?

The Nobel Peace Prize was named after Alfred Nobel. ( AP: File )

The Nobel prizes, which are also handed out for outstanding achievements in physics, chemistry, literature and peace, come with a prize amount of 12 million Swedish Krona ($1.7 million).

They were created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel, who bequeathed funds for "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".

Best known as the inventor of dynamite, Nobel was also a poet and linguist who could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17.

The five original prize categories reflect interests closest to his heart.

Nobel chose the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences to select the winners of the chemistry and physics prices, the Swedish Academy to choose the literature winner, the Karolinska Institute to award the physiology and medicine prizes, and a committee chosen by the Norwegian parliament to choose the peace prize winner.

This year, that committee has received nominations for 287 candidates — a mixture of political figures and organisations.

The shortlist is not made public, but Mr Gjerløw is considered a top forecaster.

He said the International Space Station (ISS) would be a candidate for the peace prize because it was a rare symbol of global cooperation at a time when multilateralism was crumbling and many countries had retreated to narrower national interests on Earth.

Mr Gjerløw's list also includes Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney due to him standing up to Mr Trump over US tariffs.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney could be a contender. ( Reuters: Yves Herman )

It also mentions Ukrainian children's advocate Mykola Kuleba and Save the Children; Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, a grassroots relief network; and the Committee to Protect Journalists after the deadliest two years for reporters since record-keeping began nearly 45 years ago.

Mr Trump has reportedly been nominated for the peace prize by the leaders of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan, but Mr Gjerløw says his chances of being awarded it are "quite low".

This year's peace prize comes at a time marked by the most war and conflict in decades, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Shawn Davies, a senior analyst at the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which monitors conflict, said Washington had gone from a guarantor of the postwar order to a violator of it in some cases.

"I don't even think his own base would believe" Mr Trump could win the prize now, "given how he's stuck in what looks like a forever war in Iran," Mr Davies said.

Nelson Wiseman, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, said: "Trump will be unhappy whoever gets the Nobel."

"If Carney got it, it would make relations with Canada rockier than they are," he said.

Only five people have won multiple Nobel prizes and American chemist and peace activist Linus Pauling is the only person to receive two unshared Nobel prizes.

Some awards have aged poorly, such as Egas Moniz's 1949 medicine prize for the since-discredited practice of lobotomy.

Many peace prizes have also been criticised, including those for Henry Kissinger, Yasser Arafat, Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres.

Failure to give the prize to Mahatma Gandhi before his death in 1948 is also seen by many as an oversight.

Only 20 of the prize's 112 individual laureates have been women in its 125-year history.

In the past 15 years, eight women have won the prize individually, compared to just six men.